Do you realize that most solutions that are being promoted to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change ("global warming") can do next to nothing to reduce our dependence on oil? That dependence, especially dependence on oil from countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia has dire consequences for world peace, national security, U.S. economic vitality and foreign policy.
The solutions most mentioned for addressing climate change are solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower. These alternative energy technologies (plus nuclear power) are all ways to produce electric power without emitting CO2. But less than 1% of the oil we consume is used for producing electricity (the precise figure for the past year was that 0.7%). So, even if every watt of electricity were produced using "renewables," none of them can have more than a miniscule impact on oil. By contrast, transportation consumes 70% of the oil we use -- refined into gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel. So the only effective way to reduce oil consumption must involve finding more efficient ways to run our transportation and finding alternative ways to fuel our cars, track, buses and planes.
In the long run, we could run our transportation more efficiently by turning to mass transit, bikes and walking. But it will take decades to build mass transit systems where there are none today, and to change land use patterns so that people can live within walking and biking distance from their destinations. Also, once new auto efficiency standards negotiated between the auto industry and the Obama Administration are fully in effect in 2025, that will marshall in a new era of automotive transportation efficiency. But, in the meantime, we need to find more-immediate solutions, to reduce the immediate problem of our dependence on oil.
One solution most-often discussed involves electric cars and plug-in electric hybrids. But every reputable study of that technology indicates that it will take decades before these technologies can penetrate the market. The problem is not merely one of technology -- people have been producing electric cars for more than a hundred years -- but one of consumer preference. Consumers are unlikely to buy an electric car as long as cars that rely on the internal combustion engine (ICE) provide superior range, performance, reliability, time for refueling and cost. And manufacturers are unlikely to produce electric cars in large numbers until consumer demand reaches a level far beyond the level today. So, while electric cars may eventually prove to be the perfect solution, they too can do little to reduce oil consumption for several decades to come. In fact, the 3 reputable studies of the subject (by Deloitte, JD Powers and the US Department of Energy) all predict market penetration that will do little to reduce our reliance on oil.
Another solution often raised -- most vocally by T. Boone Pickens -- is the idea of using compressed natural gas (CNG). But this technology has precisely the same limitations as electrification. While CNG might be of use for fleet vehicles, it is not a practical solution for privately owned autos for the foreseeable future.
The one solution available today involves running cars on alternative fuels that could be used in ordinary internal combustion engines or in a slightly modified ICE. These fuels include alcohol fuels such as ethanol and methanol and the so-called "drop-in" fuels synthetic gasoline, synthetic aviation fuel and biodiesel. The practicality of this solution becomes evident when one realizes that there are already nearly 9 million vehicles on U.S. roads that can run on alcohol fuels and that Brazil requires that every car produce there can run on ethanol.
A number of people have raised objections to these fuels, arguing that their production would raise food prices and would be energy inefficient. I will try to answer those arguments in a future post. But, let me address the broader issue now in simple terms: there is no other alternative! Either we substitute these fuels, or decide that we are not going to solve the problem of dependence on oil for at least the next decade or two.
I defy you to find any other solution!
